If you've ever lost a game of Catan because someone snuck the Longest Road out from under you on turn 11, science is on your side. Reddit user Hot-Rooster1675 has run a simulation of 36,000 games using four canned strategies, and the results are pretty stark: between 56 and 61 percent of all victories went to whoever ended up with the longest road. The post is making the rounds this week and ruining a lot of opening plays for ore-and-wheat enthusiasts.
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See how it worksThe simulation pitted four bots against each other across thousands of randomised boards using standard Catan rules. BalancedBuilder spread its placements for maximum resource diversity, OreWheatSheep optimised for cities and dev cards, RoadBuilder ploughed everything into wood and brick, and PortRusher chased trading post adjacency. None dominated outright, which is a relief. But two patterns held across nearly every condition: roads-first players won far more often, and games featuring the Longest Road bonus actually finished faster than those without it.
Wheat came out as the standout resource overall, showing the largest gap in availability between winners and losers, almost certainly because it feeds both city upgrades and development card buys. Starting position barely mattered, and the classic "always trust the pip count" rule of thumb held up less than you'd expect. Hot-Rooster1675 freely admits the bots use rigid strategies and have simplified trading logic, so this isn't a knockout argument against the meta. Real human Catan involves sulking, threats and one-sided trade offers, none of which can be modelled in code.
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Find events near youStill, it's a fun bit of data to take to the next game night. If your group's been arguing about whether longest road or development cards are the true win condition, now you can settle it with numbers. Round up your usual Catan crew and find a regular meetup near you on Backseat Gamer to put the simulator's wisdom to the test.
Sources: Wargamer
